RBN Energy exec says Iran isn’t likely to close the Strait of Hormuz

RBN Energy executive Rusty Braziel told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday that he doubts Iran will close off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping passage.

“If they end up cutting it off, they’re going to end up cutting off themselves,” Braziel said. “So, it’s pretty unlikely that that happens unless things get a lot more dire than they are, than they seem to be right now.”

Following the U.S.’s attack on Iran’s key nuclear sites, there are concerns that the country might be threatening to shut down the strait. A report from Iran’s state-owned Press TV said its parliament on Sunday approved the closure. CNBC could not independently identify the report.

According to Braziel, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz when a major conflict arises for more than 20 years. He said the county has never actually closed it because it has a lot to lose from such action, saying that Iran exports 1.7 million barrels a day through the strait. The market has also concluded that Iran won’t close the strait, Braziel continued, pointing out that oil prices dropped on Monday.

If Iran were to close the strait and remove its oil from the market, the price of the commodity would rise, Braziel said. But the loss of so many barrels would make U.S. exports more valuable, he added.

Braziel also warned that the U.S.’s restrictions on ethane trade to China pose serious issues for exporters. Ethane is a natural gas used to produce a variety of items, including plastic. Production in the U.S. has boomed in recent years, and it sends the bulk of its exports to China. The new regulations are making global customers more reluctant to buy other energy products, Braziel said.

“In effect, we’ve weaponized ethane, and the market knows it,” Braziel said. “And that means that…the market is no longer looking at the U.S. exporters of energy commodities as a trustworthy supplier. That’s bad.”