Electricity prices are expected to surge higher throughout the next decade due to energy policy changes in President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful” bill, according to a new analysis from Energy Innovation, a non-partisan energy and climate think tank.
Signed July 4, the bill mandates expanded oil and gas leasing, caps clean energy subsidies and rolls back tax credits that helped to make wind, solar and other clean power cheaper for manufacturers and more affordable for consumers, says Robbie Orvis, senior director for modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation.
When the clean energy tax credits phase out at the end of 2025, that will bump up electricity costs for ordinary Americans, Orvis says.
That’s largely because higher costs for clean energy development will slow the pace of new supply, just as U.S. energy demand hits record highs, he says, resulting in higher electricity bills and increased reliance on natural gas, which will also become more expensive with rising demand.
How much energy costs could increase
Electricity costs in some states will go up more than others due to the budget bill’s provisions, Orvis says — particularly in states with the greatest future potential for clean energy development.
Oklahoma’s windy conditions, for example, make the state a prime candidate for powering wind turbines, which has historically allowed residents to benefit from cheap, clean energy, Orvis says. But without the tax break for new wind power infrastructure, the average household electricity bill in the state will rise by $540 by 2035, according to Energy Innovation’s analysis.
Overall, household energy costs will rise by $170, on average, by 2035, researchers found. And that estimate may be conservative. A report from Princeton University’s Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit pegs the average increase at $280 a year by 2035.
What’s driving the price hikes
Energy Innovation’s report factors in the near dozen Biden-era clean energy incentives that Trump’s legislation terminates or phases out, along with a few clean energy policies the bill affects that predated former President Joe Biden’s administration, Energy Innovation says. It compares projected energy costs in 2035 under two scenarios: one where Trump’s budget bill passed, and one where it didn’t.
The data accounts for changes in spending on all fuel types for powering homes and vehicles, including natural gas and gasoline, although most of the cost increases are related to electricity and natural gas, Energy Innovation says. The report did not include Alaska or Hawaii.
Here’s how much more households in every state could pay annually, on average, by 2035, due to changes in energy policies under the “big beautiful” bill, according to Energy Innovation’s research.
- Alabama: $200
- Arkansas: $430
- Arizona: $220
- California: $320
- Colorado: $310
- Connecticut: $150
- Delaware: $150
- Florida: $430
- Georgia: $270
- Iowa: $350
- Idaho: $130
- Illinois: $180
- Indiana: $340
- Kansas: $380
- Kentucky: $630
- Louisiana: $440
- Massachusetts: $120
- Maryland: $350
- Maine: $80
- Michigan: $320
- Minnesota: $410
- Missouri: $640
- Mississippi: $200
- Montana: $240
- North Carolina: $490
- North Dakota: $180
- Nebraska: $250
- New Hampshire: $110
- New Jersey: $220
- New Mexico: $220
- Nevada: $320
- New York: $170
- Ohio: $190
- Oklahoma: $540
- Oregon: $140
- Pennsylvania: $160
- Rhode Island: $180
- South Carolina: $630
- South Dakota: $120
- Tennessee: $190
- Texas: $480
- Utah: $320
- Virginia: $250
- Vermont: $100
- Washington: $55
- Wisconsin: $300
- West Virginia: $160
- Wyoming: $150
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