For over five decades, the Assad family has maintained a tight grip on Syria’s leadership, but recent events have disrupted their reign. A surprise offensive led by rebel forces has resulted in the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, more than a decade after the initial uprising against his rule. Assad has fled to Russia, and now, the country’s future will depend on how the opposition groups consolidate power and navigate the power vacuum left behind.
One of the most influential figures in this shift is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group responsible for capturing key cities including Damascus. Al-Jolani, born Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has suddenly found himself at the center of Syria’s future.
Who Is Al-Jolani?
Al-Jolani’s rise to power is a significant shift in Syria’s complex rebel landscape. He leads HTS, a group that originated from the Nusra Front, an affiliate of al-Qaeda. Al-Jolani’s past as a member of al-Qaeda and his involvement in the Iraq insurgency have made him a controversial figure. The US even offers a $10 million reward for information on his whereabouts, and his militant past continues to shadow his leadership.
Al-Jolani joined al-Qaeda in Iraq after the US invasion and was detained by American forces for several years. He later became a key figure in the Nusra Front, which later rebranded as HTS in 2017. While HTS has distanced itself from its al-Qaeda roots, Al-Jolani’s past remains a critical point of scrutiny for both his supporters and detractors.
Despite his past associations, Al-Jolani has positioned himself as a more moderate force in Syria’s rebel movement. In a December 2023 interview with CNN, he said, “Don’t judge by words, but by actions. The reality speaks for itself.” He has also made efforts to project an image of moderation, attempting to move away from the hardline Islamist image that once defined his group.
What’s Next for Al-Jolani and HTS?
Now in control of key cities, including the capital Damascus, Al-Jolani is focused on establishing governance in the newly captured areas. The HTS is now a formidable force, commanding an estimated 15,000 fighters, and it has been gaining more influence as the Assad regime collapses. Al-Jolani’s leadership will likely play a major role in determining Syria’s future as the country rebuilds after years of war.
HTS has also been bolstered by fighters from the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, as well as other rebel factions united in the common goal of ousting Assad. Al-Jolani’s primary challenge now is to consolidate power and establish a functioning governance system in the newly liberated territories.
Other Rebel Forces and Key Players
The battle for Syria’s future isn’t just about HTS. Several other forces are vying for control and influence in the post-Assad era. Among these is the Syrian National Army, a Turkish-backed rebel group that has worked alongside other factions in the fight against Assad. While this group is not cohesive, it shares the goal of dismantling Assad’s regime and preventing HTS from gaining total control.
Another significant player is the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG), which has long sought autonomy for Syria’s Kurdish population. The YPG has fought alongside various international powers, including the US, and has had a complicated relationship with Turkey, which sees the group as an enemy due to its links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The Role of Foreign Stakeholders
Syria’s civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers, each with its own agenda. Russia and Iran, staunch supporters of the Assad regime, have been major players in the conflict, providing military support and resources to keep Assad in power. However, with the regime’s collapse, both countries face significant losses. Russia, in particular, is distracted by its ongoing war in Ukraine, and the future of its influence in Syria remains uncertain.
Iran, on the other hand, has long maintained a strategic alliance with Assad, using Syria as a corridor to transport weapons and supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The loss of Assad’s rule weakens Iran’s foothold in the region.
Turkey, which has played a complex role throughout the conflict, has shifted its focus over time. Initially an ally of Assad, Turkey became a key supporter of the Syrian opposition. It has also been involved in efforts to fight the Islamic State (ISIS) and has frequently clashed with the YPG. Turkey now stands to benefit from a post-Assad Syria, but how it navigates its relationships with other rebel factions will be key.
The United States, which has intermittently supported Syrian rebels and Kurdish forces, faces a shifting position. While US military presence in Syria has decreased, the country still has a strategic interest in the region, particularly in combating remnants of ISIS.
The State of Syria’s Economy
Syria’s economy has been devastated by the ongoing civil war, which has ravaged infrastructure, destroyed agricultural production, and crippled its oil industry. According to the World Bank, Syria’s GDP has shrunk by more than half since the war began, and the country now ranks as one of the poorest in the world. Unemployment and poverty are rampant, and the human development index has regressed by decades.
In addition to economic collapse, Syria has become a hub for illegal trade, particularly the production of cheap amphetamines like Captagon, a drug that has fueled both domestic issues and regional security concerns.
The Path Forward for Syria
As Bashar al-Assad’s regime crumbles, the future of Syria remains uncertain. Al-Jolani’s rise, alongside other rebel factions, marks a new chapter in the country’s long and turbulent history. With foreign powers like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the US all vying for influence, the next phase of Syria’s conflict will be defined by complex power dynamics and shifting allegiances.
While the war may be over for Assad, the road to peace in Syria is long and fraught with challenges. The key question now is how Al-Jolani and the various opposition forces will navigate the power vacuum and whether they can create a new, stable Syria after years of bloodshed and destruction.
