The outlook on consumer spending continues to get cloudier. Last week, consumer sentiment slid to its second-lowest reading on record while recent credit card data showed that many Americans are starting to cut back.
Walmart, Microsoft and Subaru are just some of the companies that have warned of price increases related to tariffs, which could lead price-sensitive shoppers to pull back even more.
However, there are plenty of companies and sectors that still see strong demand, especially in the wake of the broader market rebound following the Trump tariff pause, most recently extended to the steepest China import taxes.
“The consumer is coming back with a vengeance,” airline CEO Barry Biffle of Frontier Group said on “Money Movers” on Tuesday.
At the CNBC CEO Council Summit in Arizona on Monday and Tuesday, multiple CEOs with close reads on key consumer spending areas — homebuilding, car buying, advertising and travel — shared their latest views on the state of the economy.
Older homebuyers are spending a lot
Homebuilder and developer Taylor Morrison, which operates across 12 states including Texas, Florida and North Carolina, serves several distinct demographics, according to CEO Sheryl Palmer. This includes the younger first-time homebuyer, the upgrading slightly older buyer, and the group that she called “fifty-five and better.”
It’s that latter group, which represents more than $114 trillion in total assets, Palmer said, where the company is seeing massive interest in new homes.
“Covid really changed this group,” she said. For these buyers, it’s about “I want what I want, I can afford what I want, and I don’t know what tomorrow brings so I want to live every day to the fullest,” she added.
Among this type of homebuyer, who is heavily interested in things like home upgrades and the community amenities, Palmer said she has not seen any signs of stress in their ability to buy homes, or in credit profiles.
However, she noted, if the home is “a more discretionary purchase, there’s just a lot more thoughtfulness, which makes sense.”
The first-time homebuyer is dealing with questions around cost, Palmer said. “Can I afford it? What can I afford?” she said, are the concerns among these buyers.
While Palmer pointed to higher home prices and sticky interest rates as contributing to a “volatile period,” — mortgages rates were back above 7% this week — she said rising prices of nearly everything from insurance to groceries are what is making younger buyers more hesitant.
Surge in car buying on tariff fears is over: Carvana CEO
With concerns of potential tariff-driven price increases hitting the automotive industry hard, consumers have rushed to buy both new and used cars in recent months.
Carvana has been a big recipient of that, recently reporting a 46% year-over-year sales increase, leading to record quarterly results. CEO and co-founder Ernie Garcia said at the CEO Council Summit said that when the tariffs were announced “there was some pull forward especially of new car sales” but that has started to even out. Pricing of used cars has also started to come down, especially compared to the increases seen in recent years, Garcia said.
But when it comes to any signs of growing consumer weakness, Garcia said “we don’t see any evidence of that; it feels very strong.”
Garcia said that Carvana sells vehicles to buyers across a wide range of age groups, and overall, “consumer credit looks pretty stable.”
“I think it always feels like credit is getting worse, but I don’t think there’s a lot of evidence yet that it’s getting a lot worse,” Garcia said.
Pinterest sees shift to ‘budget’ items
Since joining Pinterest in June 2022, CEO Bill Ready has overseen a push into Gen Z, who now make up 40% of the social media platform’s userbase and who are overwhelmingly on the platform to seek help with shopping inspiration.
Ready, who said that Pinterest is a platform “for intentional choices,” said he is starting to see “some shifts in consumer behavior.”
That is coming to life through searches for “budget-related items” in areas like apparel and home goods, which are up over 200%, Ready said.
“Consumers are becoming more thoughtful and planning for the potential increase in costs or are maybe starting to experience that already,” he said.
During and coming out of the pandemic, the overarching narrative has been that many shoppers had shifted their spending from goods to experiences, with the biggest benefits of that being the entertainment and travel industries.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and Marriott International CEO Anthony Capuano, who spoke at the CNBC CEO Council Summit about their long-term partnership, said they’ve seen continued strength from sports fans and travel lovers.
While Goodell said the demand around the NFL’s recent schedule release and the more than 600,000 people who traveled to Green Bay, Wisconsin, for the NFL Draft reflects how “sports is in a different place” and is not expected to be impacted by consumer uncertainty, he acknowledged some of the challenges facing the broader entertainment industry.
Capuano said that at Marriott, which operates across 144 countries, there was a strong travel boom at the start of the year, and after a slight lull in March, it has come back strong in April even as concerns over consumer confidence have grown.
The desire to travel, especially among young people, Capuano said, is not showing many signs of slowing down.
However, Capuano said he is monitoring job and unemployment trends more broadly, and if there continues to be strong job creation and relatively low unemployment, he will “feel reasonably good about the consumer.”
“The reality is this; our business thrives in times of stability and high consumer confidence,” Capuano said. “Neither of those have been in ample supply in recent months.”
