A “For Sale” sign stands at a house in Miami, Florida, U.S. April 16, 2025.
Marco Bello | Reuters
Weak consumer sentiment is weighing hard on the housing market, as potential homebuyers pull back.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was still 14% higher than the same week one year ago.
This as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.84% from 6.93%, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.64, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That was its lowest rate since April and was just 10 basis points lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates decreased last week, driven by financial market volatility caused by current geopolitical conflict and ongoing tariff uncertainties,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions.”
Applications to refinance a home loan, which are usually most sensitive to interest rate moves, fell 2% for the week, despite the drop in rates. They were, however, 25% higher than the same week one year ago.
“Refinance activity declined for both conventional and government borrowers. VA applications, however, bucked the trend with a 2 percent increase in purchase applications and a slight increase in refinance applications,” noted Kan. “The overall average loan size at $380,200, was the lowest since January 2025.”
Rates haven’t moved much to start this week, despite the release of several economic reports. There is much more chance of a reaction after the Federal Reserve’s announcement on interest rates today.
“This has nothing to do with “cut vs no cut” (there is zero chance of a rate cut) and everything to do with the other information the Fed presents on announcement days,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “Of this info, it is the dot plot (a chart in the Fed’s economic projection materials that show each Fed members’ rate outlook over the next few years) that carries the most weight.”
