Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) arrives to a House Rules Committee meeting on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act at the U.S. Capitol on May 21, 2025.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
My top 10 things to watch Thursday, May 22
1. President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill bombs. Sure, it’s headed to the Senate, but there is nothing here. Just a bust, but the Treasury could start funding with short-dated paper and that could alleviate the long-end pressure. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.131%, its highest level since October 2023, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.613%. Stock futures were down slightly this morning after Wednesday’s sell-off.
2. Solar stocks are sinking as there are no more tax credits in the House-passed bill. Really bruising for the solar industry. Bitcoin is back with a vengeance, hitting a new record above $111,000, as investors turn to the world’s largest cryptocurrency as defense against the ridiculous U.S. deficit.
3. Walmart to eliminate 1,500 corporate jobs, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. A spokeswoman told the paper that the cuts are not related to tariffs. Is this the beginning of the visible savings from artificial intelligence?
4. Big call: Melius downgrades Marvell, which helps makes the custom chips for Amazon and, maybe, Microsoft. Not a call on slowdown in compute, more a call on Broadcom taking share. This ahead of the May 29 report and a June 17 webinar on the future of custom AI chips.
5. Apparel retailer Urban Outfitters was the star yesterday. Fashion strength, Nuuly rent-an-outfit, Free People and even flagship strong in stronger-than-expected quarterly report. Good mitigation of tariff impacts, but only so much you can do and might have to raise some prices. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $77 from $62. Not enough, will go higher. Shares soared more than 9% to roughly $69.
6. Snowflake reported a very strong quarter, with adjusted EPS of 24 cents vs. 21 cents estimate. Lots of PT hikes. Citizens JMP to $245 from $201, Bernstein to $191 from $171, Piper Sandler to $215 from $175. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both hike PTs but keep their hold ratings? I had a great talk with CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy last night on “Mad Money.”
7. Research shop MoffettNathanson says not so fast when it comes to Alphabet doing well. The analysts suspect that core Google Search is weaker. I agree and was surprised by yesterday’s big move, up nearly 3%.
8. Citi lowered its PT on Target to $94 from $97 and said the retailer lost market share in over half of its 35 categories in the first quarter, and may not be so quick to improve. Bernstein to $80 from $82. Baird to $100 from $110. I am surprised Target isn’t down more but it does have an excellent balance sheet. Needs to make some sort of move.
9. VFC Corp‘s price target cut to $15 from $19 at Barclays, which said the fiscal Q4 showed some progress but not there yet. Q1 guidance was soft. Not ready to call a turnaround for the global apparel and footwear company, which owns The North Face, Vans and Timberland.
10. Morgan Stanley raised its price target on off-price retailer TJX to $140 from $133. Might actually have been one of their best calls. Seeing merchandise everywhere at great prices and this month is very strong. We also raised our price target on the Club after the stock fell Wednesday, despite solid earnings and reiterating guidance in the evolving tariff environment.
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