“This latest trade war with China, is the type of disturbance that Apple has long been trying to prepare itself for,” says Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia.
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Shipments of iPhones from India to the U.S. rose 76% in April year on year, estimates from a technology market analyst firm shows. The surge comes as Apple accelerates its “made in India” plans, which analysts say will meet pushback from President Donald Trump and Beijing.
The data from Canalys, now part of Omdia, showed that U.S. iPhones shipped from India in April reached roughly 3,000,000. That’s a stark contrast to shipments from China over the same period, which fell about 76% from last year to just 900,000.
According to Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia, the April numbers show the aggressive measures Apple has taken to adapt to Washington’s tariffs against China, where Apple manufactures most of its iPhones.
“This latest trade war with China, is the type of disturbance that Apple has long been trying to prepare itself for,” he said, adding that the country had first started investing heavily into supply chains in India during the Covid-19 pandemic.
India also surpassed China in iPhone shipments to the United States in March, according to Omdia’s estimates. The uptick came ahead of Trump’s first iteration of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2. The amount of shipments that month was unusually high and appeared to be the result of the company’s stockpiling, according to Chiew.
The Trump administration’s decision to exempt iPhones and other consumer electronics from his reciprocal tariffs on April 11 did not reverse those trends, with Apple CEO Tim Cook in early may reiterating plans for most iPhone’s sold in the U.S. to be manufactured in India.
IPhones imported from China under Trump’s current term tariffs still face an additional 30% of duties, while the baseline tariff rate is currently 10% for most other countries, including India.
Growth to plateau?
While the jump in India’s iPhone shipments in March and April showed the adaptability of Apple’s supply chains, that growth is expected to slow down for the rest of the year, according to Omdia’s Chiew.
“India’s manufacturing capacity isn’t expected to grow fast enough to take the entirety of U.S. demand. It’s still too early,” he said, noting that the company recently began shipments of Apple’s most cutting-edge iPhone 16 Pro.
Omdia estimates that U.S. iPhone demand is about 20 million a quarter, with India expected to be able to match that level only by 2026.
Meanwhile, Daniel Newman, CEO and principal analyst at research firm Futurum Group, noted that shipment numbers reflect final assembly, but are not representative of the entire supply chain and manufacturing process.
“It was actually a very low lift for them to migrate more and more of the final assembly from China to India,” he said, adding that a vast majority of the sub-assemblies are all still in China.
Pushback from Washington and Beijing
Analysts said India’s ability to expand its iPhone capacity could be curbed by protectionist measures from Washington and Beijing, which both have issues with Apple’s reaction against tariffs.
According to Newman, while this is the smart thing for Apple to do, it’s also playing a “dangerous game” with Trump, as it doesn’t meet the objectives of his administration’s tariffs.
On Friday, Trump threatened to slap a 25% tariff on all iPhone shipments in a social media post, reiterating that he expects iPhones sold in the U.S. to be manufactured and built domestically, “not India, or anyplace else.”
China, for its part, is not expected to make it easy for Apple to diversify out of the country, Newman said, adding that the company has served as trade leverage for Beijing.
According to reports from local outlets in India, Beijing has tried to make it harder for the country to access the high-tech machinery and talent from China needed to further support Apple’s suppliers in India.
Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC that Apple’s India plans will pose some challenges regarding logistics, distribution and navigating complex supply chains in the country. However, India is nevertheless expected to remain a “life raft” for Apple under the tariff situation.
“Producing iPhones in the U.S. is a fairy tale in our view and Apple will continue to plow ahead on the India path. Cook will look to negotiate with Trump but India is the focus and not changing.”
