An employee arranges gold bars at the Italpreziosi SpA precious metals refinery plant in Arezzo, Italy, on Tuesday, May 6, 2025.
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Central banks’ growing appetite for gold meant that the precious metal was the second-largest global reserve asset in 2024, according to a European Central Bank report out Wednesday — but analysts suggest some institutions may be nearing their fill.
Central banks’ gold stockpiles are close to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s. Combined with gold’s soaring price, it is now second only to the U.S. dollar as their biggest reserve holding in value terms, the ECB said in its analysis Wednesday.
Central banks amass liquid assets such as foreign currencies and gold as a hedge against inflation and to diversify their holdings. It also allows them to sell these reserves to support their own currency in times of stress. Gold in particular is seen providing long-term value and resilience through volatility, and central banks now account for more than 20% of its global demand, up from around one-tenth in the 2010s.
The ECB said survey data found gold was increasingly attractive to emerging and developing countries concerned about sanctions and the potential erosion of the role of major currencies in the international monetary system.
Gold prices have set a string of fresh record highs over the last few years, including in 2025. A stunning rally has turned to choppiness in recent months, as global markets have been rattled by fast-changing U.S. tariff policy.
A turning point for the precious metal came around the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which combined with spiking inflation and expectations of rising interest rates, spurred a flight to so-called safe haven assets. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty has remained elevated consistently since then.
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China has been a leading driver of the gold rally, with India and Turkey among its other major buyers.
Rally to continue?
Many of the tailwinds that have propelled gold still remain.
“Investors should ensure portfolio diversification and hold sufficient exposure to gold and hedge funds,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, advised clients in a note earlier this month.
But there are signs that central bank purchases may cool in the months ahead.
The institutions “have played a key role in the gold rally and will probably continue buying gold, albeit at a slower pace than in the past couple of years,” Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC.
“Indeed, the perception of gold as hedge against global fiscal, inflationary, and geopolitical risks supports the case for central bank reserve managers to allocate a greater share of their portfolio to gold. Recent doubts over the dollar’s safe-haven status could also boost the attractiveness of both gold and the euro as reserve assets over the coming years,” Hussain added.
The rate of central bank gold purchases fell 33% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, according to data from the World Gold Council analysed by bank ING, while Chinese purchases notably slowed.
“Despite the slowdown, central banks are likely to continue to add gold to their reserves given the still-uncertain economic environment and the drive to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. In the past six months, volumes have climbed by about 30 tonnes,” ING strategist Ewa Manthey said in a note last month.
According to the ECB’s own report, the impact of geopolitics and demand on gold prices going forward will “depend on the stickiness of gold supply.”
“It has been argued that gold supply has responded elastically to increases in demand in past decades, including through strong growth in above-ground stocks,” it said.
“Therefore, if history is any guide, further increases in the official demand for gold reserves may also support further growth in global gold supply.”
