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    Home Want to know how much jobs matter to the market? Just look at Friday’s rally
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    Want to know how much jobs matter to the market? Just look at Friday’s rally

    Daniel snowBy Daniel snowJune 6, 20255 Mins Read
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    The stock market runs on jobs. For now, at least. Wall Street is bouncing back Friday, following a reversal lower in Thursday’s session sparked in large part by the blow-up between President Trump and Elon Musk. That feud sent Tesla shares tumbling, dragging the S & P 500 down with it. The index is gaining all those losses back and then some Friday. Driving Friday’s advance is a welcome update on nonfarm payrolls, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that the U.S. economy added 139,000 in May, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and hourly wages were up 3.9% versus the same time last year. While the unemployment rate matched expectations, the overall job and wage gains were both better than expected (125,000 and 3.7%, respectively, according to Dow Jones). The job additions were partially offset by a combined 95,000 downward revision to the March and April reports, but the market clearly likes the May data. The reason: Investor sentiment has been on edge following a few suboptimal reports on the state of the labor market. Payroll processing firm ADP’s private payroll report on Wednesday came in much worse than expected, and then initial jobless claims on Thursday increased for the second straight week. Was Friday’s nonfarm payroll report a blowout? Not at all. But it indicated the labor market didn’t collapse last month after the ADP number fanned those fears. That matters a great deal to investors. The U.S. is a consumption-based economy with roughly two-thirds of its gross domestic product reliant on private consumption. While inflation does remain a key concern — especially given the increased uncertainty resulting from higher tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations — the U.S. economy and, in turn, the stock market has proven an ability to keep chugging along so long as unemployment remains low. As Jim Cramer put it during Friday’s Morning Meeting , the jobs data wasn’t so weak that a recession seems imminent, but not too strong that Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months become more difficult to envision. Of course, we need to monitor for changes in behavior under the surface — I, for one, will be bringing coffee to the office now that nitro cold brew at the barista bar here has broken through the $5 level — but it’s hard to get too negative given sustained low unemployment and average hourly earnings that are tracking ahead of the overall inflation rate, which was 2.3% in April , according to the consumer price index. We’ll get the May CPI report next week. Wage gains outpacing inflation matters because it suggests a rebound in consumer buying power, even if prices continue to rise. If you’re a company that executes well and offers a great service, the consumer is still ready to spend. That’s on display in UBS’ increased confidence in rebounding traffic trends at Club name Texas Roadhouse . KeyBanc also said Friday that it likes the traffic acceleration it’s seeing at Olive Garden parent Darden . Both stocks are higher in Friday’s session. Similar logic applies even when considering much-pricier spending decisions such as a trip to Disney World. If you booked a trip to the Florida theme park for later this year, the odds you end up going on that vacation are much higher if you stay employed. You’ll also probably keep your Disney+ subscription, too. Shares of Club name Disney climbed more than 1% Friday after back-to-back down sessions. To be sure, we must keep in mind that the full effects of the trade policy shakeup have yet to be felt. For example, recent reports about the potential for automotive production to be curtailed due to rare earth mineral shortages should not be dismissed. If that comes to fruition, that would be bad for the economy and an absolute disaster for automakers and their suppliers. On the positive side of this coin, Reuters reported Friday that China gave temporary rare-earth export licenses to suppliers for the big three U.S. auto companies. The bottom line is that, as difficult as navigating this whirlwind, tariff-filled market can be, we cannot lose sight of the other important market drivers. The longer-term secular trends, such as automation, artificial intelligence, and growing energy needs, will be in play well after the tariff negotiations play out. That’s why we’re not at all worried about the decline in Broadcom shares Friday despite the company’s strong earnings from the night before. And with the jobs market holding in, the individual company fundamentals for the likes of Texas Roadhouse and Disney can still work and boost those stocks. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AVGO, DIS and TXRH. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.



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